Scholarship
My research asks how great powers anticipate and prepare for systemic shocks, and how that preparation reshapes competition.
I study two kinds of shock: those adversaries impose deliberately, such as war, blockade, and economic and financial coercion, where allies and neutral states often decide the outcome; and those no one fully controls, such as climate change and emerging technologies whose effects are deeply uncertain. A potential Taiwan crisis is my central case.
Trained as a historian and China specialist, I draw on Chinese-language sources, historical case studies, fieldwork, and collaboration with technical experts.
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PEER REVIEWED SCHOLARLY BOOKS
The Warming War: Power and Adaptation in the Age of Climate Change (Princeton University Press, under contract, forthcoming October 27, 2027)
Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China (Oxford University Press, 2026)
Reviewed in: Foreign Affairs (Bonny Lin), Wall Street Journal (Kate Odell), New York Times (Nicholas Kristof), Lawfare (Peter Dutton), Washington Post (George Will), China Books Review (Andrew Nathan)
One Belt One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World, Harvard East Asian Monographs 439 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Asia Center, 2021)
Reviewed in: China Quarterly (Julia C. Strauss), Naval War College Review (Kate Walsh), H-Net (Thomas Lee), International Studies Review (Todd Hall and Alanna Krolikowski), Air University Aether-ASOR (Brigadier General Chad T. Manske, USAF, Ret.), Kerry Brown Reviews (Kerry Brown), Asian Review of Books (Peter Gordon)
POLICY BOOKS
The Arsenal of Democracy: Technology, Industry, and Deterrence in an Age of Hard Choices, with Harry Halem (Hoover Institution Press, 2025)
Reviewed in: China Books Review
On Day One: An Economic Contingency Plan for a Taiwan Crisis, with Hugo Bromley (Hoover Institution Press, 2024).
Reviewed in Foreign Affairs (Andrew Nathan).
PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES
“The Malacca Myth: Why America Should Be Wary of a Distant Blockade Against China,” with Hugo Bromley, International Security, autumn 2026, 157–203.
“The Arsenal of Democracy: Keeping China Deterred in an Age of Hard Choices,” with Harry Halem, Texas National Security Review, Volume 9, Issue 1 Winter 2025/2026.
“The Logic of Partial RMB Internationalization: PRC Perspectives on ‘Financial War,’” with Calvin Heng, The China Quarterly, February 2025, pp. 1–16.
“Making the Past Serve the Present: Historical Revisionism in China’s One Belt One Road Propaganda,” Asian Affairs, February 2021.
BOOK CHAPTERS
“Security, Climate Change, and the Politics of Vulnerability,” with Ray Cai, in Christopher Coggins and Yifei Li, eds. The SAGE Handbook of China and the Environment, London: SAGE, 2026.
“The Missing Pillar: Economic Contingency Planning in an Era of U.S.-China Competition,” in Lessons from the New Cold War: America Confronts the China Challenge, with Hugo Bromley, edited by Hal Brands, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2025.
“Strategic Promiscuity: The Hambantota Port and Sri Lanka–China Relations,” in China and the Ports of the Indian Ocean, Richard Griffiths, ed. (International Institute for Asian Studies, 2023)
INVITED LECTURES AND KEYNOTES
“Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China”
Book talk presented at Dartmouth College, Princeton University, University of Pennsylvania, Hoover Institution, Harvard’s Belfer Center, University of Tokyo, Kings College London, University of Cambridge, Columbia Center for Global Energy Policy, Yale Law School, Harvard University Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies
“On Day One: An Economic Contingency Plan for a Taiwan Crisis”
Book talks with Hugo Bromley at: Hoover Institution, Washington DC; Columbia University, Center for Global Energy Policy; U.S. Naval War College; Harvard University Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies; Center for Strategic and International Studies; Hoover Institution; Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies; Institute for Geoeconomics
“One Belt One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World”
Book talk presented at: Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies; Japan-U.S. Military Program; Hoover Institution, History Working Group; University of Oxford, Department of Politics and International Relations; Foreign Policy Research Institute; Observer Research Foundation; U.S. Naval War College
Other keynote lectures
U.S. State Department, Foreign Service Institute, “The Belt and Road and China’s Grand Strategy,” September 25, 2024
Institute for Geoeconomics, “Future Pathways for China’s Belt and Road,” July 25, 2023
Harvard Kennedy School, “Chinese Perspectives on Climate Geopolitics,” March 27, 2023
Columbia–Harvard China and the World Program, “The Geopolitics of Anticipatory Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from China,” February 6, 2023
SOAS China Institute, “Reinventing the Belt and Road,” October 31, 2022
University of Oslo, “The Polar Silk Road and China’s Ambitions for a Warming Arctic,” December 1, 2021
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, “China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Implications for the OSCE’s Comprehensive Security Agenda,” November 18, 2021
PANEL PRESENTATIONS AND PUBLIC DISCUSSIONS
Fletcher School at Tufts University, “Global Repercussions of Russia-West Economic Warfare: China’s Conclusions,” with Mihaela Papa, Zoe Liu, and Arik Burakovsky, September 27, 2024
Global Taiwan Institute, “Taiwan Contingency Scenarios and Legal Deterrence: Issues for US-Taiwan Policy,” with Kai-Chieh Hsu and Julian Ku, August 25, 2024
Harvard University, Fairbank Center, “Prospects for the Belt and Road Initiative,” March 22, 2024
Hoover Energy Policy Working Group, “Energy Systems in the Indo-Pacific in a Regional Security Contingency,” panelist with Jim Ellis, Paul Wolfowitz, and Jason Hsu, December 5, 2023
Harvard Belfer Center, International Council, “Competition and Cooperation in the Arctic Under Climate and Geopolitical Change,” with John Holdren and Jennifer Spence, May 17, 2023
Bruegel, “BRI 2.0: How Has the Pandemic Influenced China’s Landmark Belt and Road Initiative?” with Xiaotong Zhang, Alessia Amighini, and Alicia García-Herrero, June 23, 2022
University of Edinburgh, “2022: China’s Next Steps,” with Rana Mitter, George Magnus, and Richard MacGregor, March 3, 2022
Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “China’s Rise and Reach: The Belt and Road City,” September 22, 2021
Oxford Political Review, “The Future of U.S.–China Engagement,” with Astrid Nordin, Da Wei, and Danny Quah, September 10, 2021
Yale University, Jackson Institute, International Security Studies, “Chinese Conceptions of World Order,” with Odd Arne Westad, Susan Thornton, and Bill Hayton, May 3, 2021
China Research Group, “Where Next for the Belt and Road?” with Tom Tugendhat, MP; Jonathan Hillman; and Meia Nouwens, March 11, 2021
Harvard University, Fairbank Center for China Studies and Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, “Iran and China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Between Desirable and Feasible,” with Nargis Kassenova, Nader Habibi, and Dina Esfandiary, February 22, 2021
Hudson Institute, “One Belt One Road and Great Power Competition,” with Nadia Schadlow, Patrick Cronin, and Eric Brown, February 16, 2021
University of Cambridge, Centre for Geopolitics, “One Belt One Road: Trainwreck or Masterstroke?” discussion with Jon Hillman, Theresa Fallon, and Kun-Chin Lin, December 9, 2020
Royal Society for Asian Affairs, “After the Elections: Where Next for U.S.-Asia Relations?” panel discussion with Bradford McGuinn, Jennifer Staats, James Schwemlein, and Michael Ryder, November 4, 2020
Harvard University, Department of History, “Explaining U.S.-China Relations After Tiananmen,” October 19, 2016